Quarterbacks: Pay Them Well, But Not Too Well
Quarterback is the most important position in sports. I am not exactly going out on a limb by saying that. Sure, you could argue a Point Guard in basketball or a Pitcher in baseball, and you may have some points. But the answer is still the Quarterback. If you have a great one, you will always have a shot at success. And if you don’t, well, you don’t.
In other sports, the highest paid player on the team is typically the best player on the team. In theory at least. And that is regardless of their position. The best players make the most money, makes sense. But in football, your highest paid player is almost always your Quarterback. Often times this is the case even when your Quarterback is not your best player. But given the importance of the position, in large part due to the way the rules are setup to favor a passing game, it is justifiable. 16 of the last 20 Super Bowl winning Quarterbacks are current or future Hall of Famers (Tom Brady x6, Ben Roethlisherger x2, Peyton & Eli Manning 2x each, Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, & Russell Wilson). And in 2 of those other years the Quarterbacks, although not future Hall of Famers, put together Hall of Fame-like playoff runs (Joe Flacco in 2012 & Nick Foles in 2017). And in the 11 Super Bowls previous to that, 9 of the winning Quarterbacks are in the Hall of Fame (Troy Aikman x3, Joe Montana x2, John Elway x2, Steve Young, & Brett Favre). Overall this number is 42 out of 53. Almost 80%. And taking a look at the landscape of the NFL right now, I don’t see that trend changing anytime soon. That number may end up actually increasing.
Quarterbacks have long been the highest paid players, this is not a new thing. And as you can see, there is good reason for it. But in the last 5+ years, the salary discrepancy between the Quarterback and the rest of the team has increased drastically. The salary cap does increase every year, but the percentage of that consumed by the Quarterback has also gone up. Currently (as of 2019) the 12 highest paid players in the NFL are all Quarterbacks. 10 of which make $25 million or more a year. Note – Tom Brady is not in this top 12. But his wife Gisele is worth about $400 million. That makes team-friendly contracts easier to digest. Anyways.
So the question becomes, how much can you afford to pay your Quarterback? The contracts these Quarterbacks have been signing have been over the $30 million a year mark, and that number will eventually go higher. But are they worth that much money? Look, I get your upper, upper echelon Quarterbacks do indeed deserve it. Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Wilson…and that’s about it. For now at least, as I fully expect Patty Mahomes to join that list. But are all the others worth it? The 6 others in the Top 10 (Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy G, Matthew Stafford, & Derek Carr) have won a combined 4 Playoff games. FOUR! Oh, and all 4 of those were won by Matt Ryan. So half of the top 10 highest paid Quarterbacks in the game right now, have won a combined ZERO Playoff games.
As I said earlier, you absolutely need a top-tier Quarterback. But are some, hell, I’d say most of these guys worth spending 15% of your salary cap on? Unless you are a top 5, maybe top 10 Quarterback, I’d say absolutely not. If your Quarterback is playing at an MVP caliber level, you can justify paying them $30 million+. It’s worth it. But these teams that are paying mediocre Quarterbacks top 10 money are going to see their team suffer, often times because of that contract. Of the 6 “other” Quarterbacks I mentioned in the previous paragraph, only Philadelphia made the Playoffs last season, and that was with Wentz on the bench (injury)! I would think it you’re going to get mediocre production out of your Quarterback, you should be paying a Quarterback mediocre money. Even if that means finding a different one, there are lot of average Quarterbacks making average Quarterback money. Get one of those. Think of the other ways these teams could be spending their money. Like I said, you need a great Quarterback, but pay him accordingly.
Another thing to consider, is so often the production of these Quarterbacks declines after signing their big contracts. Flacco, Stafford, Carr, Cousins, & Alex Smith come to mind. Just because a Quarterback hits free agency, doesn’t mean he’s worth top dollar. Aside from Stafford, who had put up great numbers for a number of years before the contract, the others didn’t seem to make much sense. Flacco was coming off a historic Playoff run, but was ultimately a pretty pedestrian Quarterback before that. Carr did look like he was going to be a star, but had a very short track record (and was coming off an injury). Cousins did put some nice stats for a few years, but had never won a single Playoff Game (still hasn’t). And Smith, although very solid and consistent, was approaching his mid-30’s. It seemed these teams either panicked and spent way too much money on these Quarterbacks, or pulled the contract extension trigger a little too early. Either way, these contracts in some ways derailed the entire franchise.
I will say again, you absolutely need a top-level Quarterback. But instead of over-paying for them just because they happened to hit free agency this year, how about you try to matchup their value with the dollar amount. At least make it look like you’re trying to do that. I am looking at you Dak Prescott.
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