NFL Week 5 Predictions – New Approach
Last week – 4-10 against the spread
Season total – 22-22 against the spread
Tell me, what is your strategy when you pick football games? Do you pick all the favorites? Do you pick all home teams? Do you pick the teams with the better record? Do you pick away teams when they are given 3 points or more? Do you pick the teams with the darker color uniforms? Do you pick the team with the coach who wins the highest percentage of his night games on the road in December? There are literally 1,000’s of schemes and tricks people use. And the truth is, when you factor in spreads, it’s a 50-50 proposition no matter what route you take. If you pick games, you already know that. Speaking of, I am 22-22 this year picking against the spread!
In weeks past, I have provided analysis around each game and given you my pick. I enjoyed it, and I hope you did too. But let’s be honest, how many places can you get someone’s weekly picks? Television, radio, newspaper, and about 3,000 websites? What made mine any different? Nothing.
So, I am going to try something different. Something a little more systematic. Very basic (for now), but easily trackable. And I will start very simple.
Here is what it will look like:
- Pick all home teams
- Pick all away teams
- Pick all favorites
- Pick all underdogs
And here is what I will be tracking (against the spread and straight-up):
- Home team records
- Away team records
- Favorite records
- Underdog records
- Home Favorite records
- Home Underdog records
- Away Favorite records
- Away Underdog records
That’s it. Like I said, basic. Within a couple weeks I will expand this with other variables…some that make sense, and some that are just ridiculous. Because why not?
And I implore you to give me ideas for this. Comment on this article, I would love to add them in. Both for real, usable, statistical data, and also for entertainment purposes. I’m all ears.
So here is what we’re looking at for the upcoming NFL Week 5:
This particular post will not have any results, as this is the 1st week we have any “picks”. Next week’s edition will have the results from this week, along with the picks for the upcoming week. And every week after that will be the same, and will also feature a tracking element for all previous weeks. Should be interesting to see.
If anyone has any suggestions, I would love to hear them. I can make this as interactive and collaborative as you want it to be! Enjoy.
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