NFL Week 4 Predictions
Last week – 7-8 against the spread
Season total – 18-12 against the spread
Titans @ Falcons (Falcons -4)
After blowing the Browns out in Week 1, the Titans have scored 24 points their
last 2 games combined. Marcus Mariota
does have 706 yards passing and no INTs, but 304 of those yards were in that
Browns game. Their defense continues to
play well, but the offense is sputtering.
As for the Falcons, when will they, specifically their offense start
playing up to their potential? With Matt
Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman, there is no reason they should be
averaging 20 points per game. Matt Ryan
is averaging over 300 yards per game, but is also averaging 2 INTs per
game. If they can start eliminating the
turnovers, I expect them to turn it around soon. I see the Falcons winning and covering the 4 points.
Redskins @ Giants (Giants
-2.5)
As much heat at the Giants organization took for drafting Daniel Jones (as high
as they did), you have to think they were pretty happy with what they saw last
Sunday. 23 for 36, 336 Yards, 2 TD
passes, and 2 TD runs. On a similar
note, the Giants offense looked more inspired on the field than they have in a
long time. I like where this team is
headed. The Redskins on the other hand,
are not heading in the right direction. Their
offense has been playing ok (21 points per game), but their defense has been
awful, giving up 30+ points in each of their 3 games. The injury to Saquon Barkley will certainly
slow down the Giants offense, but I still think they can put up points. I like the home Giants to win and cover the 2.5 points.
Chargers @ Dolphins (Chargers
-15.5)
When will this Chargers offense show up?
When you look at their statistics, it looks like they should be scoring
in bunches. Philip Rivers is averaging
315 Yards per game, Keenan Allen has 400+ Yards receiving, and Austin Ekeler
and Justin Jackson have combined for over 300 Yards rushing. Yet they are averaging only 20 points per
game. How?! On the other hand, you have the
Dolphins. They are averaging just over 5
points per game, and giving up just over 44 points per game! A historically bad start to a season. As much as I want to pick the Chargers to cover,
I just don’t trust them enough. I will
pick the Chargers to win, but the Dolphins
will cover the 15.5 points.
Raiders @ Colts (Colts -6.5)
The Colts are one of the more surprising teams in the season thus far. Even though their point differential is -1,
they are 2-1, and have played some gutsy games.
Loss in overtime, won by 2, won by 3.
Jacoby Brissett’s stats do not jump out at you, but he does have 7 TDs
to only 1 INT. Effective. The Raiders, after beating Denver in their
opener, have gone on to lose by 18 (Chiefs) and 20 (Vikings), and have not
looked good doing it. Aside from rookie
Josh Jacobs, their offense has not played great, specifically Derek Carr (4
TDs, 3 INTs). These teams do actually
matchup pretty well, but they are going in opposite directions, and the game is
in Indy. That said, I will take the Colts to win and cover the 6.5 points.
Panthers @ Texans (Texans -4)
The Texans are 2-1, and are a Will Lutz 58 yard field goal away from being 3-0. Deshaun Watson has played very well, the
Carlos Hyde / Duke Johnson duo has been very productive in the backfield, and
they have 4 players with over 100 Yards receiving. On the Panther side, it will be interesting
to see how Kyle Allen responds after his impressive performance last week. 19 of 26, 261 Yards, 4 TDs. Was that a fluke, or is he that good? Flying
under the radar this year is Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 150 yards
from scrimmage. If Houston can load the
box and stop him, I see the Texans
winning and covering the 4 points.
Odd stat – The Panthers are last in their Division, yet are the only
team in their Division with a positive point differential. Weird.
Chiefs @ Lions (Chiefs -6.5)
Doesn’t this spread seem a little low? I
know the Lions are at home, and I know the Lions have had a somewhat surprising
2-0-1 start. They’ve been a nice story. But this is the high-flying Chiefs, who are
averaging 34 points per game. Patrick
Mahomes is the early pick for the MVP, and the Lions pass defense is 22nd
in the NFL. Doesn’t it seem like a lock
for the Chiefs to score 40? I will take
the Chiefs to win and cover the 6.5
points.
Browns @ Ravens (Ravens -7)
The Ravens offense has been the most surprising unit so far this season,
averaging 37 points per game (albeit 59 were against the Dolphins). Lamar Jackson has exceeded all expectations,
and Mark Ingram already has 5 TDs on the season. The Browns on the other hand, have not lived
up to the off-season hype. Shocker, I
know. Both Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham
have played well, but Baker Mayfield has all of 3 TDs, to go with 5 INTs. Not exactly what the 2019 Browns had in
mind. If they lose this game, with the
schedule they have coming up, this team may begin spiraling out of
control. Since it is a Divisional game
though, I see it being a tough, close game.
I do think the Ravens will win, but the Browns will cover the 7 points.
Patriots @ Bills (Patriots -7)
Exactly how good are these Patriots?
Well, we don’t really know. They
are 3-0, with a league-best +89 point differential. But the combined record of their 3 opponents
thus far? 0-9. The up and coming Bills, also with a 3-0
record, will be the first challenge they will have this season. Also worth noting, the Bills haven’t played
anyone yet either, with their opponents having a combined 1-8 record. The Bills have been a pleasant surprise this
season, are they that good? Josh Allen
has put up some yards, but sports a 3 to 3 TD to INT ratio. If rookie Devin Singletary plays (held out of
practice earlier in week), in theory they have a shot. If not, good luck. Either way, I will take the Patriots to win and cover the 7 points.
Buccaneers @ Rams (Rams -9.5)
The Rams do not appear to be suffering from a Super Bowl Hangover most expected
they would. They have not been as
dominant on offense as I expected they would be, but their defense is giving up
only 16 points per game. Good enough for
a 3-0 record. The Buccaneers, despite a
1-2 record, have not played bad football.
Their defense has given up a lot of points (26 per game), but their
offense has been better than they are getting credit for. The Ronald Jones / Peyton Barber duo has over
320 yards rushing, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have almost 500 yards
receiving. It all comes down to Jameis Winston
though. He has been wildly inconsistent
(it’s kind of his thing), but did play very well last week with 380 yards, 3
TDs, 1 INT. I think this spread is a
little high, so I will take the Rams to win, but take the Buccaneers to cover the 9.5 points.
Seahawks @ Cardinals (Seahawks
-5)
The Seahawks may be 2-1, but they don’t feel like it, do they? They beat the winless Bengals by 1, beat the
Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers by 2, then lost to the Drew Brees-less
Saints. A win is a win, I acknowledge
that, but I don’t feel great about them right now. The Cardinals have been about what I expected
this year. I said in the pre-season that
they may not be good, but they will be exciting. And they have been. Kyler Murray at times looks like the next big
thing…and then he doesn’t. In each of
his 1st 2 games he threw for over 300+ yards, then his 3rd
game he set an NFL record for the lowest yards per attempt (with over 30
completions). With the Seahawks in the
bottom half of passing defense, I think he will bounce back this week. I will take the Cardinals to win outright.
Vikings @ Bears (Bears -2)
These teams have had very similar seasons thus far. Both are 2-1 (somehow tied for last place in
Division), both defenses rank in the top 5 in the NFL, and both offenses have
been wildly inconsistent. The offensive
units are loaded with weapons, but the Quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins &
Mitchell Trubisky) have not played near expectations. Well below actually. I give the Bears the slight advantage by
being at home, and I give the Bears the slight disadvantage by coming off a
short week. Hardest pick of the
week. I guess I will take the Vikings to win outright.
Jaguars @ Broncos (Broncos -3)
The Broncos investment in Joe Flacco is not looking like a great one at this
point. The Denver offense is scoring
less than 16 points per game, and Flacco has thrown all of 2 TDs. Couple that with a defense that has not been
as good as advertised, their 0-3 record is not shocking. The Jaguars on the other hand, despite their
1-2 record, are exceeding expectations, as evidenced by a -2 point differential
(their 14 point loss to the Chiefs heavily factors into that). D.J. Chark and Chris Conley have combined for
over 475 yards receiving, and Gardner Minshew and his moustache have played,
well, outstanding. 692 yards, 5 TDs, and
1 INT, to go along with 80 yards rushing.
Most surprising player in this young season. With the Broncos being a 3 point favorite at
home, essentially means these teams are equal.
I disagree. I will take the Jaguars to win outright.
Cowboys @ Saints (Cowboys -2.5)
A 2.5 point spread?! The Cowboys look like the best team in the NFC, averaging 32 points per game. Dak Prescott has been playing at an MVP level, and Ezekiel Elliott has been proving he deserves to be paid top dollar. Oh, and their defense is 4th in the NFL in scoring (allowing less than 15 points per). The Saints are 2-1, but have a -10 point differential. If Drew Brees was playing, I would say the Saints of course have a chance. But he is not. I can’t see Teddy Bridgewater putting up enough points. Easiest pick of the week, by far. Cowboys win and cover the 2.5 points.
Bengals @ Steelers (Steelers
-4)
I bet this matchup is not what ESPN signed up for. The 0-3 Bengals vs the 0-3 (without Big Ben)
Steelers. I am not sure how to analyze
this one, as both teams have been dreadful.
They have given up the 5th and 6th most points in
the NFL. They have scored the 5th
and 8th least points in the NFL.
Can I pick the under instead?!
Since I have to pick the game, I will take the Steelers to win, but the Bengals will cover the 4 points. Whatever.
Like this article? Share it on Twitter or Facebook. Like us? Follow us on Twitter (@big3sportsblog1) or like our Facebook page (@big3sportsblog). Not a fan? Tell us why!