MLB Divisional Series Preview and Predictions
Well, the Wild Card Games are in the bag, so it’s time for the real Playoffs to start! In terms of volume, this is the best week of the Playoffs. Multiple games on each day. As a baseball fan, what more could you ask for?
Here is my preview for this round, along with my predictions. Enjoy.
Wild Card Game Predictions – 1-1
Twins @ Yankees
If there has even been a more evenly matched series, I would love for you to find it for me. Would you like to get a feel for exactly how evenly matched these 2 teams are? Here are their American League rankings this season.
And if you had to describe these teams, your narrative would be about the same – Adequate starting pitching, shaky middle relievers, solid closer, hit well for average, very little speed to speak of…and the ability to hit Home Runs. Lots and lots of Home Runs. Or if you’re a Twins fan, Bombas. As a matter of fact, the Twins hit 307 this year to the Yankees 306, both shattering the previous MLB record of 268 (last year’s Yankees). With that power, combined with average starting pitching and 2 hitter-friendly ballparks, this could be one of the higher scoring postseason series in recent memory.
So who has the advantage? Like I said, this is pretty much a toss-up. I see 3 things separating the Yankees. 1. They possess home field advantage. 2. This relatively young team does have some postseason experience. ALDS last year, and the year prior made it to Game 7 of the ALCS. That experience could prove crucial. 3. I don’t know how important or relevant this is, but it’s worth noting - The Yanks have absolutely owned the Twins in the Playoffs this century. Owned. 2003 ALDS, Yankees beat the Twins 3 games to 1. 2004 ALDS, Yankees beat the Twins 3 games to 1. 2009 ALDS, Yankees beat the Twins 3 games to 0. 2010 ALDS, Yankees beat the Twins 3 games to 0. 2017 Wild Card Game, Yankees beat the Twins (after Minnesota was up 3-0 in the top of 1st). Recap – The Yankees have beat the Twins the last 5 postseason series they’ve played, which includes 10 games in a row.
With the Yankees having home field, their experience, and the current playoff streak, it’s hard for me to not take them. I believe the Twins will push it to 5 games, but with Game 5 being in Yankee Stadium, I can’t see them winning the Series there. I will take the Yankees in 5 games. I hate that.
Rays @ Astros
I said before the Wild Card Game, neither team (Rays or A’s) had much of a chance against the Astros. And I still believe that.
On paper, this is the best team in baseball, and they have been all season. They are the only team in this postseason that does not appear to have any flaws. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are combined 40-11 with over 600 Strikeouts, and are 3rd and 4th in ERA. And Zack Greinke, since coming to the Astros in August, is 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA. Doesn’t that remind you of Verlander in 2017? Oh, and their bullpen has the 3rd lowest ERA in the MLB. On the offensive side, they are just as solid. Highest team Batting Average in the MLB, 3rd in Runs scored, and 3rd in HRs. Like I said, not a flaw on the team.
As for Tampa, I said before the Wild Card Game, this team has the lowest chance of making a run. They are in the lower half of MLB in terms of Runs scored and HRs. This is noteworthy, as the other 4 American League postseason teams happen to rank 1, 2, 3, & 4 in HRs. They do have a solid pitching staff though, with the best team ERA in the American League. Oddly enough, they only have 2 pitchers with double-digit wins. Ace Charlie Morton (16-6) and their 5th starter Ryan Yarbrough (11-5). Their bullpen does boast the best ERA in all of baseball, so they do have that going for them.
For me, this is the easiest pick this entire postseason. I will take the Astros in a sweep.
Nationals @ Dodgers
The Dodgers won 106 games this season, 2nd behind only the Astros for the best record in baseball. They are also the 2-time defending National League champs. In theory, they shouldn’t have many problems with a Wild Card team.
But this Nationals team isn’t your normal Wild Card team. They are the hottest team entering October, coming into the NLDS with an 8 game winning streak. They also have something that most teams are not able to claim…a pitching duo capable of dominating an entire series. 2001 Diamondbacks ring a bell? And that doesn’t include lefty Patrick Corbin, who would be an ace on most staffs. The 3 of them are combined 43-20, with a 3.18 ERA. They also have a solid lineup, led by Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto (34 HRs each), along with 7 others with over 15 HRs. With that pitching staff and that balanced of a lineup, it’s a little surprising they won only 93 games. Well, actually I do know why. An MLB worst 5.66 bullpen ERA. I will be curious to see how much they use their bullpen in this series, or if they will use their 4th and 5th starters as their bullpen. Can’t blame them if they go that route.
The Dodgers are loaded from top to bottom, on both offense and on their pitching staff. They led the NL in Home Runs, led by MVP candidate Cody Bellinger (.305 Batting Average, 47 HRs, 115 RBI), Joc Pederson (36 HRs), and Max Muncy (35 HRs). And if you want to talk about balance, every starting position player hit over 15 HRs this season. As for the pitching staff, Clayton Kershaw was his usual dominant self, sporting a 16-5 record and a 3.03 ERA. But, for the first time in about a decade, he wasn’t even the best pitcher on the team. Hyun-Jin Ryu was even better, with a 14-5 record, and a microscopic 2.32 ERA. Oh, and their bullpen had the best ERA in the NL this season, anchored by closer Kenley Jansen.
All that said, as good as the Nationals are, I still find it hard it hard to believe they are beating the Dodgers in this series. They are just too good. I will take the Dodgers in 4 games.
Cardinals @ Braves
Of all the Divisional Round series, this one seems to have the least amount of star power. With the exception of Ronald Acuna, there are no big names on either team. But don’t let that fool you, this could prove to be one of the more exciting series this round, as these 2 teams matchup very closely.
The Cardinals are the lowest scoring team in this postseason, ranking 21st in baseball. While they do have a few players with power (Paul Goldschmidt 33 HRs, Paul DeJong 30 HRs, Marcell Ozuna 29 HRs), they have nobody batting over .285. They will not be winning many games with their offense. But what they do lack in offensive firepower, they make up in pitching. They have the 5th lowest ERA in baseball, and do have 2 pitchers who have had postseason success, in Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha. If veteran catcher Yadier Molina and their starting pitchers can keep them in games early, their bullpen is good enough to close games out.
The Braves boast an explosive offense (3rd in National League in Runs scored), led by 3 sluggers with 37+ HRs. Veterans Freddie Freeman (38 HRs) and Josh Donaldson (37 HRs), and youngster and MVP candidate Ronald Acuna (41 HRs). They are very capable of staying in games via the long ball. Their success will come down to their pitching though. Mike Soroka is 3rd in the National League with a 2.60 ERA, and Max Fried has had a great season, with a 17-6 record. They do have an x-factor though, and that is Dallas Keuchel. He has been average since joining the Braves in June, with an 8-8 record and 3.75 ERA. But in the postseason, he has had success. 4-2 record, 3.31 ERA, and a World Series ring. His presence on that staff could prove crucial this October.
As close as this matchup is, I think the Braves are a better team overall. I also think this series will put Acuna on the national map, I expect big things out of him. I will take the Braves in 4 games.
That's how I see these Divisional Series playing out. Tell me what you think! And stay tuned for my League Championship Series preview in about a week!
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