2020 NFL Championship Weekend Predictions
What a weekend of football! The Titans shocked the world and beat the Ravens handily. The Texans/Chiefs featured a blowout, a close game, and a blowout…all in the same game! And the Packers survived a ferocious Seahawks comeback to hang on and win. Great weekend of football. Will Conference Championship Sunday be just as good? Let’s take a look.
Wild Card Weekend picks – 2-2
Divisional Weekend picks – 2-2
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Offense
Offensively, the Chiefs are better than the Titans in almost every aspect of the game. Quarterback - Patrick Mahomes over Ryan Tannehill. Wide Receivers - Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins over A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Tight Ends - Travis Kelce over Jonnu Smith. But then there is the Running Back position. To say Derrick Henry has an advantage over Damien Williams or whoever else the Chiefs hand the ball off to is an understatement. Averaging 196 yards rushing the last 3 games (588 yards), which is an NFL record. Historic start to the Playoffs for Henry. That said, top to bottom, Mahomes and Company are too good and too explosive. Ask the Texans. Advantage – Chiefs
Defense
In the regular season, these teams were pretty comparable. Chiefs 7th in scoring and 17th in yardage. Titans 12th and 21st. Slight edge to the Chiefs. Recently, it’s been even closer. In the month of December, Kansas City gave up an average of 10.4 points per game. And in the last 3 games, all against Playoff teams, Tennessee has given 14 (Texans), 13 (Patriots), and 12 (Ravens) points. Both are playing very well on that side of the ball. Advantage – Push
Special Teams
Kickoff and punt returns are often times a crapshoot. A great returner may not touch the ball all game, and an average one can break one loose for a TD. Tennessee’s punter (Bett Kern) does average a few more yards per punt that Kansas City’s (Dustin Colquitt), but I am not sure how important that is, as the Chiefs don’t punt very often. Only real advantage here is the Kicker, which goes to the Chiefs. Harrison Butker has been one of the more accurate Kickers since coming into the NFL in 2017 (89.7% Field Goals), and the Titans Kicker…Greg Joseph just joined the team in late December. Advantage – Chiefs
Coaching
You would think this would be an easy one, right? Titans Mike Vrabel is a 2nd year Coach, coaching in the Playoffs for the 1st time in his career. Chiefs Andy Reid is coaching in his 15th post-season, 6th with Kansas City. He has 13 Playoff wins, and has led his teams to 6 Championship Games (5 with Eagles, 1 with Chiefs), and 1 Super Bowl appearance (Eagles in 2004). That said, he has had his share of post-season struggles. Overall 13-14 record, and even with some loaded teams, is just 1-5 in those Championship Games. I happen to believe he’s one of the better regular season coaches in history, top 10 perhaps. But post-season? No. Advantage – Titans
Intangibles
On paper, this Chiefs team is better than the Titans, no doubt about it. But the Titans are one of the hotter teams in football, and at this point, are playing with house money. Who thought they would be playing in the AFC Championship Game? Nobody. Advantage – Titans
PICK
Despite the Derrick Henry advantage, the momentum, the backs against the wall mentality, and the potential coaching advantage Tennessee has…this Kansas City offense is simply just too good. They scored 51 points in the last 40 minutes this past weekend, and it could have been more. They seem like a lock to score 35+, and even if the Titans play perfect, I don’t see them keeping up. This is the Chiefs year, and this is also Reid’s best shot at a Super Bowl title. PICK – Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Offense
The 49ers ranked 2nd in scoring offense this season (29.9 points per game), and scored 27 points against a good Vikings defense this past weekend. The Packers offense was up and down all season, but still managed to average 24.5 points per game, and scored 28 against the Seahawks this weekend. The skill positions are very even – Aaron Jones gives Green Bay an advantage, George Kittle gives the 49ers an advantage, and the Receivers are a wash. For the Quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo had a slightly better regular season (3,978 yards, 27 TDs, 13 INTs, 102.0 Rating), but has never played in a Playoff game. Rodgers, for his standards, had a down year (4,002 yards, 26 TDs, 4 INTs, 95.4 Rating), but still elite. And, he’s proven in the Playoffs. Very proven. I think Jimmy G will prove himself down the road, but not quite yet. Advantage – Packers
Defense
Green Bay’s defense was one of the bigger surprises in the NFL this season. 9th in scoring defense, 18th in yardage defense (bend-but-don’t break). They averaged over 1.5 takeaways per game, and newcomers Za’Darius & Preston Smith combined for 25.5 Sacks. For the first time in a decade, their defense won games for them. But this 49ers defense is better. More takeaways, more sacks, fewer points, fewer yards. Advantage – 49ers
Special Teams
Like I said in the other preview, with the exception of the kicker, special teams are often times a crapshoot. The kicking game features a couple guys 35+ years old, combining for 27 Playoff games. Robbie Gould struggled this season, making less than 75% of his Field Goals. Mason Crosby on the other hand, converted over 91% of his Field Goals. Crosby has also proven he’s able to hit Field Goals when the pressure is on (see 2016 Divisional Game vs Cowboys). Advantage – Packers
Coaching
This one is tough, as neither Coach has coached in the Playoffs. Packers rookie Coach Matt LaFleur was 13-3 in his rookie season, and 49ers 3rd year coach Kyle Shanahan was 13-3 as well. Shanahan does have Playoff experience though, as he was the Offensive Coordinator for the Falcons during their 2016 Super Bowl run. So I guess that gives him the advantage? Advantage – 49ers
Intangibles
The Packers and 49ers met in Week 12 this year, and the 49ers dominated the Packers in every way, winning 37-8. Will that have any impact on this weekend’s game? Maybe, maybe not. One thing to think about here…in the 2005 NFL Draft, Aaron Rodgers was passed up by the 49ers (and future Coach Mike McCarthy) as the #1 pick, and dropped to the Packers at #24. When asked in the interview after the Draft how disappointed he was to not be picked by the 49ers, his response "Not as disappointed as the 49ers will be that they didn't draft me." He has had his struggles against the 49ers in the Playoffs in the past (0-2)…will this be the year he gets his revenge? Advantage – Push
PICK
Overall, these teams matchup quite closely. So what will is come down to? The Quarterbacks of course. Aaron Rodgers was not as dominant as he has been in years past, but he still has the ability to take over a game when it matters most. Ask the Seahawks. And for that reason and that reason only…PICK – Green Bay Packers
So there you have it, in the NFL’s 100th season, we will get a Super Bowl I rematch!
Now, tell me what you think!!!
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