2019 MLB Wild Card Preview and Predictions
October Baseball is officially here, with the Wild Card games set for tonight and tomorrow night. Let’s take a look at the 2 matchups, and I’ll give you my predictions as well.
Starting Pitching
This matchup features 2 very different approaches with the starting pitchers. 3-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer gets the start for the Nationals. Although he was not as dominant in 2019 as he has been in seasons past, he was still great with an 11-7 record and an impressive 2.92 ERA (6th in the NL). Only blemish on his resume is his postseason performances. Career 5-4 record, and has not won a postseason game since joining the Nationals in 2015. For the Brewers, they will be turning to Brandon Woodruff. He was 11-3 this season, with a 3.62 ERA. His endurance may be a factor though, as he has made only 2 starts since injuring his oblique, an injury that cost him 2 months. His only 2 starts since coming back, he has only made it 2 (scoreless) innings before getting pulled. Curious to see how long he lasts in this game. Note – The Brewers are 22-4 in games Woodruff started this season. Another note – Often times in these 1 and done games, all hands are on deck, meaning Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin may be available if the game goes deep into the night. Advantage – Washington.
Bullpen
If the game comes down to the bullpen, the Brewers do have a distinct advantage. Not because they are that dominant, but because Washington’s has been awful all year. Their bullpen ERA this season was 5.66, dead last in the MLB. If Woodruff can pitch effectively into the middle innings and their bullpen can hold a lead into the 8th inning, the Brewers have a shot. Star closer Josh Hader had a 2.62 ERA this season with 37 Saves, and was absolutely unstoppable in the postseason last year. 10 innings pitched, 0.00 ERA. The Brewers best shot is to shorten this to a 7 inning game. Advantage – Milwaukee.
Offense
On the offensive side, the Nationals have every measurable advantage over Milwaukee. They rank 2nd in the NL in both Runs scored and Batting Average. Milwaukee, ranks in the lower half in both categories. Milwaukee did boast more power this season, but Christian Yelich’s 44 HRs were the reason for that. With him out, this offense could struggle scoring runs. Washington’s lineup is very balanced, with 9 players hitting over 15 HRs, led by Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto (34 HRs each). Advantage – Washington.
Intangibles
The Nationals postseason success has been, well, non-existent. Since moving to Washington in 2005, they have yet to win a postseason series, losing in the NLDS in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2017. The Brewers, although only making the Playoffs twice the last decade, did make it to Game 7 of the NLCS last season. That experience could be a factor. Advantage – Milwaukee.
Prediction
Often times these 1 Game Playoff “Series” are decided by one thing. Starting pitching. That said, I’ll take Scherzer. And for that reason alone, I will pick the Nationals.
Starting Pitching
Taking the hill for Tampa is Charlie Morton. He is the only starter in this game with any noteworthy postseason experience (World Series winner with Houston). Coming off a season in which he posted a 16-6 record and a 3.05 ERA (3rd in the AL), he is exactly who Tampa wants pitching this game. The only concern with Morton is, which Morton will show up? Through early June, he was 8-0. From early June through August, 5-6. September, 3-0. When he’s at his best, he is very capable of putting the Rays on his shoulders. For Oakland, as of right now (Tuesday afternoon), they have yet to announce their starting pitcher. I believe it’s likely they will trot out Sean Manaea, as he has been unhittable in September since coming back from shoulder surgery. 5 starts, 4-0 record, 1.21 ERA. If not Manaea, it will be Mike Fiers, who had an impressive season as well, with a 15-4 record. Without knowing the starter yet, I will say…Advantage – Rays.
Bullpen
Both teams are capable of holding leads, as both teams rank in the top 4 in bullpen ERA in the AL. Tampa is 1st, Oakland is 4th. Tampa’s bullpen gets the most work, averaging an MLB high 4.77 innings per game, so their 3.66 ERA is proven and earned. Oakland’s bullpen is not nearly as utilized, but it does feature closer Liam Hendricks and his 1.80 ERA. Regardless of who you favor in this matchup, both bullpens are capable of keeping this game low-scoring. Advantage – Oakland.
Offense
While Oakland may have the lowest team Batting Average of all AL Playoff teams, they have the power to make up for it. They were 4th in the AL in HRs, with 3 players hitting over 30, and another 4 hitting over 20. Tampa on the other hand, finished in the middle of the pack in both Runs scored and HRs. Aside from DH Austin Meadows, no Rays player hit more than 20 HRs or hit over .282. Not common for a Playoff team, notably an AL team in this year’s Playoffs. Advantage – Oakland.
Intangibles
In terms of intangibles, there is not much separating these teams. Neither team has won a Playoff series in over 5 years. Neither Manager has even won a Playoff Series. Neither team has any notable players (sans Morton) with postseason experience. I guess the only advantage would be Oakland is at home, in the always rocking Oakland Coliseum. Sorry, RingCentral Coliseum. Actually, they had the 5th lowest attendance in the AL this year. But, I read today that they have sold almost 50,000 tickets! Thankfully it’s in Oakland too, as I wouldn’t have to watch a MLB Playoff game in Tampa with 40,000 empty seats in the background. So I guess…Advantage – Oakland?
Prediction
These teams are about as even at is gets. Tampa’s pitching is better than Oakland’s, but only slightly. Oakland’s offense is better than Tampa’s, period. That’s the difference. With that said, I will pick the Athletics.
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