2019 MLB League Championship Series Preview and Predictions
The League Championship Series have arrived! We are down to our final four, with each team vying for a spot in the World Series. Several familiar faces on the American League side, with many emerging postseason stars on the National League side. Explosive offenses and excellent starting pitching…should be two great Series.
So, time for a preview and predictions. Here we go.
Wild Card Game Predictions – 1-1
Divisional Series Predictions – 2-2
Yankees @ Astros
Do you like Home Runs? Do you like dominant starting pitching? Do you like historic teams? Do you like potential dynasties? Well, this Series has all of these!
Starting Pitching
Coming into the postseason, there were some concerns about the Yankees starting pitching. Although Masahiro Tanaka has had success in October, their other two starters had not. Kenny Paxton had no playoff experience, and Luis Severino had struggled his only two playoff runs (1-2 record, 6.26 ERA). But all three pitchers had solid outings against the Twins in the Divisional Series. Good sign for the Yankees. But, the Astros starting pitching is simply outstanding. Justin Verlander was 21-6 this season, and boasts a career postseason 14-8 record and a 3.20 ERA. Gerrit Cole was 20-5 this season, with a league-leading 2.50 ERA. And the Divisional Series? 2-0, 15 2/3 innings pitched, 25 Strikeouts, 0.57 ERA. Dominant. Zack Greinke has not had postseason success, but was 8-1 after coming to Houston in August. Even if Greinke struggles, the two-headed monster of Verlander and Cole will be enough for the Houston. Advantage – Astros.
Bullpen
This is one of the few postseason series in which both teams feature solid bullpens. The Astros and Yankees finished 3rd and 5th respectively in the American League in bullpen ERA, and both have dominant closers in Aroldis Chapman and Roberto Osuna. I don’t see any team having a clear advantage here, but it will be interesting to see if/how either team utilizes their starting pitchers out of the bullpen. Something to watch for. Advantage – Push.
Offense
From an offensive standpoint, this series matches up very similar to the Twins / Yankees Divisional Series. Both teams rank in the top 4 in the American League in every major offensive category:
As you can see, tough to find an advantage for either team here. One potential x-factor could be Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton. He played only 18 games in the regular season, and only returned to the lineup on September 18th. If he can find his power (and let’s be fair, not strikeout half the time), he could be a huge factor for New York. Advantage – Push.
Intangibles
Houston is the only team this postseason that has won a World Series together. That experience could prove critical, it often times does. The Yankees are playing in their 3rd consecutive October, and had their best season since 2009 (their last Championship). Something tells me their time is coming soon. It feels like it. Slight Advantage – Yankees.
The Yankees and Astros are very, very evenly matched up in almost category…expect starting pitching. But I believe that will prove to be the difference. Verlander and Cole (and perhaps Greinke too) will be too much for the Yankees to handle. AL Pennant Prediction – Astros.
Nationals @ Cardinals
I will be completely honest, this was not the NLCS matchup I was expecting to see. Full disclosure, when the Braves and Dodgers were both up 2-1 earlier in the week, I had written this article featuring an Atlanta v Los Angeles NLCS. Oops. So, Washington v St. Louis we go.
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals feature 2 young starters in Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, who both had solid regular seasons, and pitched very well in the NLDS (2.54 ERA combined). They also have Adam Wainwright, definitely not young, but has pitched in 7 postseasons with St. Louis. And has pitched well I might add, 7 2/3 shutout innings in the NLDS, and has a career 2.20 ERA in 4 career NLCS. Also a 2-time World Series winner. That leadership and experience could be very valuable. The Nationals…they also have an above average staff. Ok, maybe that’s a little understated. Dominant. No need to dive into stats with this one. With Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin starting every game, if just 2 of these guys are at the top of their games, that might be enough to win this Series. I see that happening. Advantage – Nationals.
Bullpen
This depends on what you consider your bullpen. Is it your relief pitchers, or pitchers that don’t start the game? The Nationals had the worst bullpen in baseball this past season (5.66 ERA), but have proven in both the NLWC and NLDS that they are willing to utilize their three ace starters in the middle and end of games. That absolutely bolsters your bullpen (and when I say bolster, I mean nullify), but how will that affect them in their starts? Time will tell. As for the Cardinals, they had the 2nd lowest bullpen ERA in the NL this year. However, closer Carlos Martinez was awful in the NLDS. 3 games pitched, with a 16.20 ERA. If he bounces back, it gives them a clear advantage. But if not? The Cardinals have an x-factor in this series, middle reliever Andrew Miller. He is one of the more accomplished postseason relievers in history. 25 Games, 35 Innings, a 1.03 ERA. Do the Cardinals consider using him as their closer? Something to think about. A lot of bullpen questions for both teams this series. Advantage – Push.
Offense
Of all the 2019 postseason teams, the Cardinals are the lowest scoring, ranking 21st in baseball. While they do have a few players with power (Paul Goldschmidt 33 HRs, Paul DeJong 30 HRs, Marcell Ozuna 29 HRs), they have nobody batting over .285. This was evident in the NLDS. With the exception of that little 10-run 1st inning in Game 5, they struggled to score runs all series. One thing I do want to add though, is do not underestimate the presence of Yadier Molina. Is there anyone else you want up in a big spot in this postseason? For the Nationals, they ranked 2nd in Runs and 3rd in Batting Average in the NL this season, led by Anthony Rendon (34 HRs, 126 RBI) and Juan Soto (34 HRs, 109 RBI). These two guys knocked in 11 of the Nationals 21 runs in the NLDS, and I see them carrying Washington in the NLCS as well. Slight Advantage – Nationals.
Intangibles
The only clear advantage I see for the Cardinals, is Yadi. His leadership, clutch hitting, and most importantly his ability to handle the Cardinals pitching staff cannot be overlooked. He can change any series he plays in. But I think the Nationals have everything going for them right now. Hottest team in September, comeback win against the Brewers in the Wild Card Game, and came back from a 2-1 series deficit (and a 3-0 Game 5 deficit) to beat the MLB-best Dodgers. They are playing with a level of invincibility right now. And you have to wonder, how much does the loss of Bryce Harper play into this? A lot I hope. Advantage – Nationals.
As you can see above, Washington is better than St. Louis in pretty much every conceivable way. And that pitching staff? Too good to overcome. It’s their time. NL Pennant Prediction – Nationals.
So, my prediction is a Nationals v Astros World Series. The best pitched World Series in history? Could be. Now tell me, what do you think?!
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